The Upset Report


During the 2006 NFL football season we found that our statistical analysis program predicted, with surprising accuracy, a significant percentage of the weekly "upsets." In fact if one took advantage of the money line bet on each of our predicted upsets, a 61% return on investment would have resulted! Using our picks to determine the "straight up" winner of each NFL game one would have correctly picked 63.7% of the winners. Those results would have put you in the money on the "Pick The Pros" contest in Las Vegas.

We will post our picks for each 2007 NFL game by Wednesday of each week.



Picks for Feb. 3rd, 2008, The BIG Game

The Line numbers are relative to the home teams. A negative number indicates the visiting team is favored.

The Money Line numbers are relative to our picks.

A positive number is an Upset Pick. We pick the favorite in this game to win. 

Home


New England



Line


13



Visitor


N.Y. Giants


Our Pick


New England



By


18.5



Money
Line

-450



Over/
Under

50




Week to Week Totals for 2007

To see expanded data go to each week's page through the '2007 Data' link above.

Week 
Number

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Totals


Money 
Line

-$400
-$100
+$290
+$455
-$50
+$155
+$25
+$500
-$75
 $0
-$150
+$280
+$305
 $0
 $0
-$100
+$15

+$1150  


                     Straight Up


9 Wins, 7 Losses, [56.3%]
9 Wins, 7 Losses, [56.3%]
11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.7%]
8 Wins, 6 Losses, [57.1%]
10 Wins, 4 Losses, [71.4%]
9 Wins, 4 Losses, [69.2%]
9 Wins, 5 Losses, [64.3%]
11 Wins, 2 Losses, [92.3%]
8 Wins, 6 Losses, [57.1%]
7 Wins, 7 Losses, [50%]
11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.7%]
13 Wins, 3 Losses, [81.3%]
11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.7%]
14 wins, 2 Losses, [87.5%]
10 Wins, 6 Losses, [62.5%]
10 Wins, 6 Losses, [62.5%]
13 Wins, 3 Losses, [81.3%]

173 Wins, 83 Losses, [67.6%]


              Against The Spread


8 Wins, 8 Losses, [50%]
6 Wins, 9 Losses, 1 Push [40%]
9 Wins, 3 Losses, 3 Pushes [75%]
9 Wins, 5 Losses, [64.3%]
5 Wins, 9 Losses, [35.7%]
9 Wins, 2 Losses, [81.8%]
9 Wins, 5 Losses, [64.3%]
10 Wins, 3 Losses, [76.9%]
7 Wins, 7 Losses, [50%]
5 Wins, 8 Losses, 1 Push [38.5%]
9 Wins, 6 Losses, [60%]
8 Wins, 8 Losses, [50%]
9 Wins, 6 Losses, [60%]
13 Wins, 3 Losses, [81.3%]
7 Wins, 9 Losses, [43.8%]
5 Wins, 11 Losses, [31.3%]
11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.8%]

139 Wins, 107 Losses, 5 Pushes [56.5%]


























Week to Week Cumulative Totals for 2006

To see expanded data go to each week's page through the '2006 Data' link above.

Week 
Number

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Money 
Line

+$415
+$720
+$855
+$755
+$455
+$1045
+$1195
+$1405
+$1525
+$1940
+$2137
+$1867
+$2369
+$2971
+$3116
+$3741
+$3663

         Straight Up


10 Wins, 6 Losses, [62.5%]
22 Wins, 13 Losses, [68.8%]
33 Wins, 13 Losses, [71.7%]
42 Wins, 18 Losses, [70%]
53 Wins, 21 Losses, [71.6%]
62 Wins, 25 Losses, [71.3%]
68 Wins, 32 Losses, [67.3%]
77 Wins, 37 Losses, [67.5%]
85 Wins, 43 Losses, [66.4%]
96 Wins, 48 Losses, [66.7%]
107 Wins, 53 Losses, [66.9%]
115 Wins, 61 Losses, [65.3%]
126 Wins, 66 Losses, [65.6%]
137 Wins, 71 Losses, [65.9%]
147 Wins, 77 Losses, [65.6%]
155 Wins, 85 Losses, [64.6%]
163 Wins, 93 Losses, [63.7%]

         Against The Spread


9 Wins, 7 Losses, [56.3%]
21 Wins, 11 Losses,  [65.6%]
26 Wins, 18 Losses, 2 pushes [59.1%]
33 Wins, 25 Losses, [56.9%]
40 Wins, 31 Losses, 1 push [56.3%]
46 Wins, 38 Losses, [54.8%]
51 Wins, 46 Losses, [52.6%]
61 Wins, 50 Losses, [55%]
67 Wins, 58 Losses, [53.6%]
73 Wins,67 Losses,1 push [52.1%]
82 Wins, 74 Losses, [52.6%]
89 Wins, 83 Losses, [51.7%]
97 Wins, 91 Losses, [51.6%]
107 Wins, 97 Losses, [52.5%]
116 Wins, 104 Losses, [52.7%]
126 Wins, 110 Losses, [53.4%]
131 Wins, 121 Losses, [52%]

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