Upset Report








Welcome to the Upset Report


We will post our picks for each 2009 NFL game by Wednesday of each week.

The Opening Line numbers are relative to the home teams. A negative number indicates the visiting team is favored.

The upset pick for the Super Bowl is New Orleans.

Picks for the 2009 Season Super Bowl is:

Home Opening Visitor Our Picks By Money O/U
Indianapolis 4 New Orleans New Orleans 0.5 +180 52
Talking points for the Super Bowl: Our stats for the Super Bowl make it the closest for any Super Bowl we have rated. New Orleans is a mere 0.014 points better than Indy in our rating system. That difference is really insignificant. Another stat we keep is based on the percentage of touchdowns scored and given up by a team. Again, New Orleans is marginally better there as well, being 0.034 better. The fact that the New Orleans offensive line kept that Minnesota defense out of their backfield giving Brees lots of time might be the edge. We'll take New Orleans and the 5 1/2 points which may well grow to over 6.

How we define the columns labeled Opening Line, By, Money Line, O/U?,



Week to Week Totals for 2009

To see expanded data go to each week's page through the '2009 Data' link above.

Week# Money Line Straight UP Against The Spread
1 -100 11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.8%] 9 Wins, 7 Losses, 0 Pushes, [56.3%]
2 585 11 Wins, 5 Losses, [68.8%] 9 Wins, 7 Losses, 0 Pushes, [56.3%]
3 295 13 Wins, 3 Losses, [81.3%] 12 Wins, 4 Losses, 0 Pushes, [75%]
4 180 12 Wins, 2 Losses, [85.7%] 7 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Pushes, [53.8%]
5 -150 7 Wins, 7 Losses, [50%] 6 Wins, 8 Losses, 0 Pushes, [42.9%]
6 170 9 Wins, 5 Losses, [64.3%] 7 Wins, 7 Losses, 0 Pushes, [50%]
7 -140 8 Wins, 5 Losses, [61.5%] 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 0 Pushes, [75%]
8 -200 7 Wins, 6 Losses, [53.8%] 4 Wins, 9 Losses, 0 Pushes, [30.8%]
9 240 8 Wins, 5 Losses, [61.5%] 6 Wins, 5 Losses, 0 Pushes, [54.5%]
10 -90 8 Wins, 7 Losses, [53.3%] 6 Wins, 8 Losses, 1 Pushes, [42.9%]
11 255 13 Wins, 3 Losses, [81.3%] 8 Wins, 7 Losses, 1 Pushes, [53.3%]
12 -200 12 Wins, 4 Losses, [75%] 7 Wins, 7 Losses, 2 Pushes, [50%]
13 0 10 Wins, 6 Losses, [62.5%] 3 Wins, 13 Losses, 0 Pushes, [18.8%]
14 345 14 Wins, 2 Losses, [87.5%] 10 Wins, 5 Losses, 1 Pushes, [66.7%]
15 -80 9 Wins, 7 Losses, [56.3%] 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 4 Pushes, [75%]
16 35 9 Wins, 7 Losses, [56.3%] 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 4 Pushes, [75%]
17 -200 12 Wins, 4 Losses, [75%] 5 Wins, 6 Losses, 5 Pushes, [45.5%]
Totals $945 173 Wins, 83 Losses, [67.6%] 126 Wins, 108 Losses, 19 Pushes, [53.8%]